Une Megalopole pour la France? Nous croyons que non!

La nouvelle France de TGV

January 14th and 21st, 2001 - Le Figaro newspaper and the Express International ran a series of articles last summer, heralding the opening of the TGV Méditerranée on the 10th of June. With the TGV Méditerranée service, this vibrant nation believes it has completed the groundwork for a functional Megalopolis (Megalopole) in France.

You can now take the train to Marseilles from Paris in three hours versus the seven plus hours before the Paris - Lyon TGV link was introduced in 1981. A three-hour trip to the south of France, the favorite vacation spot for the French, is going to transform this region from a yearly vacation destination into a place for weekend get-away jaunts.

L'Express International, did an excellent expose on how the south region of France is preparing to exploit the increased accessibility between Paris and Marseilles.

(This May 31st - June 6th edition is recommended reading to anyone interested in the induced demand effect of collapsing travel times.)

The following graph obtained from Le Figaro, illustrates the contraction changes effected by the TGV in France.

In contrast to the TGV Nord and the TGV Atlantique where the objective was to maximize revenue, the operators of the TGV - the SNCF - are adopting a low fare structure to generate considerable induced demand for the TGV Méditerranée. The Paris - Marseilles second-class fare is 63.10 Euros or about $57 in US currency for a journey of 540 miles. This cost translates into an astounding per mile revenue yield of just 10.55 cents. Such a low cost is particularly surprising given the labor-intensive operation of the TGV where train crews include a conductor, car attendants and an engineer.

Clearly, the French National Government is striving to increase mobility between the metropolitan regions of France. The TGV is an enormous success but we wonder if France will continue to be well served by this train. When the TGV opened 20 years ago between Paris and Lyon, the service induced 45% of new riders according to the SNCF. And this figure is about to be surpassed.

The SNCF severely underestimated the induced demand effect for the new line. For as soon as the TGV Méditerranée opened, the president of the railroad was surprised to learn that the TGV would be full for the next 6 months. The SNCF only ordered 12 additional trains to handle the expected demand and now find themselves short 34 trains that are now on order and due for delivery between December 2001 and January 2004.

Where did the new ridership come from? Well according to the media reports, especially L'express International, Parisiens are changing their lifestyles. Some are leaving Paris with their families for places like Avignon, Nime, and Marseilles. For some location-liberated workers like those in the publishing business, they work full time for their Parisien employers from the south of France. Combining computers and the Internet to submit work and the TGV to get to Paris and return home on the same day when the need for personal interaction arises, their work - home commute extends 500 miles.

So great is the effect of this increased telecommunications and transportation accessibility in the south of France, that real estate values in Marseilles are expected to increase by 40% in the coming years.

Prior to the TGV, today's travelers were commuting by the automobile and public transit where both the workplace and residence were located within the metropolitan limits of Paris. The TGV coupled with the low fare structure have increased the choice selection for work and residences beyond Paris. Even companies are exploiting the mobility advantages of the TGV by moving out of costly Paris. Wine and Company an e-business wine distributor recently relocated their company headquarters to Aix-en-Provence. Why we in North America continue to ignore the intracity commuting market to assess the combined speed, affordability, convenience and reliability of technologies like the Magplane, continues to intrigue this writer.

Do any of you remember last year's IBM IT Business commercial where a new start-up company goes on line and incoming orders fly in at an unanticipated pace that spells trouble for the new company? Well, one has to wonder whether the SNCF will be up to the challenge in these next few years, let alone in 2020.

According to the Figaro Newspaper and the L'Express International, the TGV has an operational hourly one-way capacity of 15,000 passengers. With two double-decked trains coupled together, the seating capacity is 1,000 passengers. Operating at four-minute intervals, 15 trains can run along the TGV Méditerranée line. This is an impressive capacity, but it is doubtful that the system will be able accommodate growing demand in the near future.

In North America, the majority of our subway systems, like the Toronto subway, can carry about 30,000 passengers an hour. In New York because of their unique expressway subway lines, they can approach almost 80,000 passengers an hour. The Magplane can carry about 25,000 passengers or more per hour, emulating more closely the capacity transportation attribute of mass transit.

As a result of capacity constraints, the TGV requires passengers to reserve their seats ahead of time. Can anyone imagine what the ridership impact would be on the Washington metro system if you had to book a ticket for the 8:13 departure from Charles L'Enfant station to Dupont Circle?

SNCF is understandably keeping their long-term plans a secret but it is very likely that capacity constraints are among the top of their concerns. Jerry Schneider a very well known transportation planning professor from the University of Washington, found that for mass transit operations, station capacity levels more than line haul headways and vehicle capacities, determine the operational capacity of a system. Gare de Lyon is the only TGV train station in Paris serving the south of France. The logistical challenge of handling 1,000 incoming passengers every four minutes must be quite severe. While the station can theoretically be enlarged, the cost of acquiring adjacent properties in historic Paris must be very expensive and difficult. Because the TGV must run very long consists and cannot serve off-line stations, the stations must be very large in size and very few in number. The TGV Méditerranée line only required 3 new stations; one each in Avignon, Valence, and Aix. The combined cost for the stations was 1.09 billion francs or about $150 million US per station.

How will the SNCF be able to accommodate such growing demand? Likely, the most obvious way to reduce congestion will be to control demand through higher fares. This strategy is already being played out along the TGV Méditerranée line. While a Paris to Marseilles trip costs about 10.55 cents a mile, the trip to Lyon which is only 290 miles south of Paris costs 19.3 cents a mile (63.7 Euros for a second class fare). On a per mile basis, it costs almost twice as much to travel half as far on the TGV Méditerranée between Paris and Lyon versus Paris and Marseilles.

From the media stories, it is clear that a policy shift in the SNCF has occurred with respect to TGV commuting markets. But considering the capacity constraints of the system, it is doubtful whether the railroad will be able to accommodate the transformation of existing intercity travel markets into time, cost, convenience and reliability equivalent mass transit markets in the long-term future. Soon travelers and businesses will begin demanding additional capacity and a difficult question will have to be answered by the French. While France has been great for the TGV, will the TGV be good enough for France for much longer? The TGV because of its capacity limitations will never be able to transform France into an Interactive Megalopolis.

Sources

TGV Fares

Le Figaro Newspaper, June 6, 2001

Le Figaro Entreprise, June 5th, 2001

L'Express International, No 2604, Week of May 31st to June 6, 2001. (This magazine has many articles that explain the phenomenon of induced demand in France and is recommended for reading by Magplane.)

This article is published with the express permission of Richard Zavergiu the author. Please visit Magplane.com for all the details.

MTA to Add Electric Scooters, Bicycles to Its Fleet

LOS ANGELES SCOOTER TRANSIT Driving a mile or two to your local MTA parking lot? For half the parking fee, you can lease a scooter from them. Jan 16 -- Los Angeles Times

A Train to a Plane to a Bus to a Subway

"In much of the world, political leaders have concluded that for trips of less than 350 miles, train travel is the soundest choice, both economically and environmentally. There is broad agreement across the political spectrum that taxpayers should pay to build railways just as they pay to build highways. Yet in the United States, railroads receive little support."

Retiring UH professor to build cities of future

A retiring University of Hawaii professor has developed a low-cost building type that is revolutionizing development in third-world cities. Jan 15 -- Honolulu Star-Bulletin

Policy Guide on Smart Growth — Draft

The American Planning Association is accepting input on its draft Policy Guide on Smart Growth. Jan 15 -- American Planning Association

TODAY IN HISTORY

On this day in 1861, flush toilet patented by Thomas Crapper (Ever wonder how we get that word we substitute for you-know-what?)

On this day in 1871, the first cable car patented by Andrew S. Hallidie (Actual service begins in 1873)